Wang et al. (2025) The transformation mechanism for accommodating forecast uncertainty of reservoir

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-07-26
• Authors: Qianning Wang, Yong Peng, Min Li, Wei Ding, Jinnan Zhang, Feilin Zhu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133985

Research Groups

• School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, China

Short Summary

This study explores how reservoirs accommodate forecast uncertainty during flood water resource utilization and proposes a risk-based method to optimize water use without increasing flood risk.

Objective

• To quantify the accommodative transformation relationship of forecast uncertainty in reservoirs and develop a forecast information utilization method based on this mechanism to optimize flood water resource utilization.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Three Gorges Reservoir (Case Study).
• Temporal Scale: Real-time reservoir operation during typical flood rise scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory, numerical simulation, and a risk decomposition model dividing flood risk into Pre-release Volume Risk (PVR) and Pre-release Timing Risk (PTR).
• Data sources: Numerical simulations and operational data from the Three Gorges Reservoir.

Main Results

• Accommodation Space: Reservoirs possess an "accommodation space" for forecast uncertainty; flood risk only becomes significant when uncertainty exceeds this threshold. Ignoring this relationship leads to an overestimation of risk and suboptimal water utilization.
• Inflow Dynamics: A faster rate of inflow rise increases the reservoir's accommodation space for forecast uncertainty, although it simultaneously increases overall flood risk.
• Operational Benefit: Applying the proposed forecast utilization method based on accommodation space increased power generation by $2.25 \times 10^8$ kWh during a typical flood rise without increasing flood risk.

Contributions

• The research introduces the concept of "accommodative transformation" to reservoir management, providing a theoretical basis to avoid overly conservative scheduling.
• It proposes a novel flood risk calculation method based on CVaR theory that distinguishes between volume and timing risks (PVR and PTR).

Funding

• Not mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2025transformation,
  author = {Wang, Qianning and Peng, Yong and Li, Min and Ding, Wei and Zhang, Jinnan and Zhu, Feilin},
  title = {The transformation mechanism for accommodating forecast uncertainty of reservoir},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133985},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133985}
}