Yang et al. (2025) Characteristics, prediction model and driving mechanism of multidimensional daily scale propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in Guangxi, China

Identification

Journal: Journal of Hydrology
Year: 2025
Date: 2025-09-11
Authors: Yunchuan Yang, Zongheng Li, Jia‐Zhen Yang, Liping Liao, Liqing Liang, Changzheng Wei, Meilin He, Chongxun Mo, Xungui Li, Guikai Sun
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134233

Research Groups

State Key Laboratory of Featured Metal Materials and Life-cycle Safety for Composite Structures, Guangxi University
Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University
Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Guangxi University
Guangxi Provincial Engineering Research Center of Water Security Intelligent Control for Karst Region, College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University

Short Summary

This study investigated the daily propagation characteristics, developed a prediction model, and elucidated the driving mechanisms of meteorological drought to agricultural drought in Guangxi, China, revealing distinct seasonality, time-lag effects (average 10.4 days), and scaling effects, primarily driven by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.

Objective

To present the daily propagation characteristics from meteorological drought (MD) to agricultural drought (AD) in Guangxi using standardized weighted average precipitation (SWAP) and soil moisture condition index (SMCI).
To propose a daily scale MD-AD drought propagation prediction model based on multi-factor drought characteristics.
To fully discuss and explain the intrinsic triggering mechanism of MD-AD propagation.

Study Configuration

Spatial Scale: Guangxi, China
Temporal Scale: Daily scale, covering the period 1979–2015

Methodology and Data

Models used: Bayesian additive regression models (BARM), Random Forest-SHAP analysis
Data sources: Standardized weighted average precipitation (SWAP) for meteorological drought, soil moisture condition index (SMCI) for agricultural drought. Implicitly, observational data for precipitation, soil moisture, elevation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were used.

Main Results

During 1979–2015, 125 meteorological drought (MD) and 178 agricultural drought (AD) events occurred in Guangxi, with 67 successfully matched event pairs.
Drought propagation characteristics exhibited distinct seasonality (primarily October-April), time-lag effects (average 10.4 days, ranging 1–44 days), and scaling effects of drought variables (ratios: 1.31 to 2.94).
Both time-lag and scaling effects varied with drought duration and integrated intensity.
The subtropical monsoon climate strongly influenced seasonal drought propagation on spatial patterns.
Precipitation (correlation 0.32), soil moisture (correlation -0.26), and elevation (correlation 0.27) prior to AD events showed significant correlations with time lags.
Precipitation (34.6 %) emerged as the principal driver of MD response rates.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) (41.6 %) was identified as a key driver for AD response rates.

Contributions

First study to comprehensively characterize daily scale propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in Guangxi, China.
Developed a novel daily scale MD-AD drought propagation prediction model using Bayesian additive regression models (BARM).
Provided a detailed explanation of the intrinsic triggering mechanisms of MD-AD propagation through Random Forest-SHAP analysis.
Offers scientific support for daily scale drought early warning and dynamic resilience improvement strategies for farmland ecosystems in southern China.

Funding

The provided paper text does not explicitly list funding projects, programs, or reference codes.

Citation

@article{Yang2025Characteristics,
  author = {Yang, Yunchuan and Li, Zongheng and Yang, Jia‐Zhen and Liao, Liping and Liang, Liqing and Wei, Changzheng and He, Meilin and Mo, Chongxun and Li, Xungui and Sun, Guikai},
  title = {Characteristics, prediction model and driving mechanism of multidimensional daily scale propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in Guangxi, China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134233},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134233}
}

Original Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134233