Zhang et al. (2025) Climate warming shortens the propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought over 1960–2100

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-17
• Authors: Yang Zhang, Zhenxin Bao, Jie Wang, Xianhong Meng
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134429

Research Groups

• The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing, China
• Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, Lanzhou, China

Short Summary

This study investigates how climate warming influences the propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought in the Ganjiang River Basin from 1960 to 2100, revealing that warming shortens the propagation time for drought onset and center, while prolonging it for drought end, primarily due to increased evapotranspiration and groundwater storage anomalies.

Objective

• To comprehensively understand the propagation of meteorological drought into groundwater drought and its influencing factors in hilly regions under a warming climate.
• To elucidate the influence pathways through which climatic and hydrological variables affect drought propagation time.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ganjiang River Basin, China (a representative mountainous and hilly catchment).
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1960–2019) and future period (2020–2100), totaling 1960–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: VIC-SIMGM model, Structural Equation Model (SEM).
• Data sources: Observed data, CMIP6 projections, GRACE satellite data, water level data.

Main Results

• Groundwater droughts occurred less frequently than meteorological droughts but were longer and more severe, a disparity projected to intensify with climate warming.
• The propagation time for drought center (PTcenter) decreased from 5.11 months (1960–2019) to 4.39 months (2020–2100).
• The propagation time for drought onset (PTonset) declined from 3.71 months (1960–2019) to 1.42 months (2020–2100).
• The propagation time for drought end (PTend) increased from 4.14 months (1960–2019) to 6.26 months (2020–2100).
• Climate warming-driven evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) were identified as significant controlling factors for the temporal variability of propagation time.
• Increased temperature leads to higher ET, which directly increases water consumption during drought propagation, thereby shortening PTcenter and PTonset.
• Larger groundwater deficits caused by increased ET prolong PTend.

Contributions

• Provides novel insights into the temporal evolution of drought propagation times under climate warming.
• Elucidates the underlying mechanisms and influence pathways through which climatic and hydrological variables affect drought propagation.
• Contributes to a deeper understanding of the drought propagation process, which is crucial for sustainable groundwater resource management.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhang2025Climate,
  author = {Zhang, Yang and Bao, Zhenxin and Wang, Jie and Meng, Xianhong},
  title = {Climate warming shortens the propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought over 1960–2100},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134429},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134429}
}