Abbas et al. (2025) Southward to northward shifting trends of monsoonal precipitation and their connections with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan: A comparative study of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-30
• Authors: Sohail Abbas, Amina Ameer, Fenglin Lv, Tingting Li, Yi Chen, Liang Cao, Siqi Lu, Yasir Latif, Muhammad Yaseen, Wei Feng, Amjad Ali Khan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134440

Research Groups

• College of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou, China
• Henan Key Laboratory of Earth System Observation and Modeling, Henan University, Kaifeng, China
• Henan Dabieshan National Field Observation and Research Station of Forest Ecosystem, Zhengzhou, China
• Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou, China
• Xinyang Academy of Ecological Research, Xinyang, China
• Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
• Centre for Integrated Mountain Research (CIMR), University of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
• Department of Geography, Sustainability, Community, and Urban Studies, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, USA
• The Forest Science Research Institute of Xinyang, Xinyang, China
• Henan Jigongshan Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Xinyang, China
• Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Science, China

Short Summary

This study analyzes the southward-to-northward shifting trends of monsoonal precipitation and their connections with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan from 1961 to 2020. It reveals a significant northward shift in precipitation, with regional increases in core monsoon areas and decreases in coastal and southern regions, largely influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Objective

• To analyze the southward-to-northward shifting trends of monsoonal precipitation and their connections with atmospheric circulations over different precipitation regions of Pakistan, both before and after the climate change era, and on a decadal scale from 1961 to 2020.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering various precipitation regions across Pakistan (e.g., coastal zones, central plains, southern desert, northwestern regions, Baluchistan Plateau).
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal analysis from 1961 to 2020, with comparisons between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, and decadal trends.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: No explicit climate or hydrological models. Statistical methods include Modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope method, Pearson correlation, and stepwise regression.
• Data sources: Precipitation data (implied observational). Atmospheric indices (Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)).

Main Results

• An increasing trend in summer monsoon precipitation was observed in regions 3 and 4 during the 1960s.
• Precipitation deficits appeared in the coastal zones of Pakistan by the 2010s.
• Core monsoon regions showed an increase in precipitation from 1991 to 2020, contrasting with a decrease from 1961 to 1990, likely due to a strong positive influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
• A significant southward to northward shifting trend of precipitation was identified at rates of −2.37° at 90°E, −6.03° at 93°E, and −2.98° at 96°E longitude of Pakistan.
• From 1991 to 2020, summer precipitation in the central plains and southern desert regions decreased, mainly attributed to the negative influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• In winter, northwestern regions showed decreasing trends, while southern regions indicated increasing trends from the 1980s to the 2010s.
• A reduction in precipitation was observed over the Baluchistan Plateau regions, primarily attributed to the weakened effect of ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the latter half of the study period.

Contributions

• Provides a crucial regional climate assessment of monsoonal precipitation shifts in Pakistan.
• Enhances the understanding needed for predicting future precipitation patterns in the region.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Abbas2025Southward,
  author = {Abbas, Sohail and Ameer, Amina and Lv, Fenglin and Li, Tingting and Chen, Yi and Cao, Liang and Lu, Siqi and Latif, Yasir and Yaseen, Muhammad and Lu, Siqi and Feng, Wei and Khan, Amjad Ali},
  title = {Southward to northward shifting trends of monsoonal precipitation and their connections with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan: A comparative study of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134440},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134440}
}