Yang et al. (2025) Probabilistic assessment for drought risk: Integrating drought hazard, ecological sensitivity, economic vulnerability, and their coupling coordination

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-24
• Authors: Wentong Yang, Junfei Chen, Tonghui Ding, Yuanhang Li, Wenjie Gong
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134451

Research Groups

• Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
• School of Economics and Finance, Hohai University, Changzhou 213200, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
• Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-Quality Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
• School of Management, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255049, China

Short Summary

This study developed a robust drought risk assessment framework integrating Eco-DRR capacity and the coupling coordination of drought risk components. Applied to county-level cities in China's three northeastern provinces (2000-2022), the framework revealed generally low/moderate drought hazards, high ecological sensitivity, low economic vulnerability, and low/moderate overall drought risk, with specific spatial patterns and probabilistic classifications for cities.

Objective

• To establish a robust drought risk assessment framework by integrating Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) capacity into drought risk components, considering both long-term characteristics and the coupling coordination of these components.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level cities in China’s three northeastern provinces.
• Temporal Scale: 2000 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: InVEST model.
• Data sources: Drought index, time series data for drought risk and coupling coordination of its components, AHP-CRITIC method, and fitting with eight marginal distributions.

Main Results

• Cities in China's three northeastern provinces generally experienced low or moderate drought hazards, high or very high ecological sensitivity, low or very low economic vulnerability, and very low, low, or moderate overall drought risk.
• Coupling coordination of risk components was typically basic or moderate.
• Spatially, higher drought risks were observed in the western regions of these provinces and the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province.
• Under maximum probability, 151 cities were classified as severe drought risk, 40 as dangerous, 80 as mitigated, and 9 as safe.
• Differentiated recommendations were provided: severe cities should strengthen drought warning and emergency response; dangerous cities should coordinate economic development with ecological protection; mitigated cities should optimize industrial layout; and safe cities should enhance risk prevention.

Contributions

• Integrated Eco-DRR capacity into drought risk assessment, considering long-term characteristics and coupling coordination of risk components.
• Established a robust and comprehensive drought risk assessment framework.
• Provided a probabilistic assessment for comprehensive drought risk, classifying cities into distinct risk levels.
• Offered specific, differentiated policy recommendations tailored to various drought risk levels, promoting sustainable and disaster-resilient urban development.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yang2025Probabilistic,
  author = {Yang, Wentong and Chen, Junfei and Ding, Tonghui and Li, Yuanhang and Gong, Wenjie},
  title = {Probabilistic assessment for drought risk: Integrating drought hazard, ecological sensitivity, economic vulnerability, and their coupling coordination},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134451},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134451}
}

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