Yi et al. (2025) Flood changes and generating mechanisms in the Upper Rhine Basin under a warming climate

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-01
• Authors: Ying Yi, Yu Zhu, Zhangkang Shu, Shiyin Liu, Lucas Menzel
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508

Research Groups

• College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
• Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
• Department of Geography, Professorship in Hydrology and Climatology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg D-69120, Germany
• The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
• Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China

Short Summary

This study simulates runoff in the Upper Rhine Basin (URB) using the SPHY model to analyze flood characteristics and their underlying mechanisms from 1960 to 2019. It finds a general trend of increasing flood peaks and prolonged durations, primarily driven by rising temperatures altering hydroclimatology and enhancing snowmelt-driven runoff, especially for snowmelt-dominated events.

Objective

• To analyze flood characteristics and their underlying generating mechanisms in the Upper Rhine Basin (URB) under a warming climate.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Upper Rhine Basin (URB)
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2019

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Spatial Process in HYdrology (SPHY) model
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in the provided text, but the study involves hydrological simulation and analysis of flood events.

Main Results

• The Upper Rhine Basin is identified as a snow-dominated alpine catchment, with snow runoff contributing an average of 61 % to total runoff.
• Out of 265 investigated flood events, 222 were snowmelt-dominated, predominantly occurring between May and July during peak snowmelt periods.
• Rainfall-dominated floods were less frequent and exhibited lower peak discharges.
• Combined snowmelt-rainfall floods showed greater magnitudes compared to floods dominated by either snowmelt or rainfall alone.
• A general tendency toward increasing flood peaks and prolonged event durations was observed over the study period, most notably for events around the 70th percentile.
• Rising temperatures have altered the regional hydroclimatology by shifting precipitation from snowfall to rainfall and disturbing the timing and magnitude of snowmelt.
• Increasing frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow (ROS) events further exacerbated these alterations, enhancing snowmelt-driven runoff generation and modifying the timing and magnitude of flood responses.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of flood changes and their generating mechanisms in the Upper Rhine Basin under a warming climate.
• Quantifies the significant contribution of snowmelt to total runoff and flood events in the region.
• Identifies specific climatic drivers, such as rising temperatures, precipitation phase shifts, and rain-on-snow events, as key factors altering flood dynamics.
• Underscores the urgent need for adaptive flood management and water resource strategies in the URB.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yi2025Flood,
  author = {Yi, Ying and Zhu, Yu and Shu, Zhangkang and Liu, Shiyin and Menzel, Lucas},
  title = {Flood changes and generating mechanisms in the Upper Rhine Basin under a warming climate},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508}
}