Zhang et al. (2025) Underestimated future flash drought risks in major grain-producing areas over China

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-02
• Authors: Xinyu Zhang, Yi Liu, Ye Zhu, Zhimin Wang, Liliang Ren, S. S. Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Tianling Qin, Zhe Yuan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134531

Research Groups

• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
• The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
• School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
• State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
• Water Resources Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China

Short Summary

This study assesses historical and future flash drought risks in major Chinese croplands by integrating crop phenology into the analysis framework. It reveals that a significant proportion of historical flash droughts occurred during critical crop growth phases, and future projections substantially underestimate risks if crop phenology is overlooked, particularly in northern regions.

Objective

• To evaluate historical flash droughts (2000–2020) and project future flash drought risks (present–2100) in five major croplands in China, specifically by integrating crop phenology into the assessment framework to understand its influence on drought impacts under various climate change scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Five major croplands in China (e.g., Northeast China, Northwest China).
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (2000–2020) and future projections (present–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
• Data sources: Climate model simulations from CMIP6 under four future emission scenarios (SSPs).

Main Results

• For the historical period (2000–2020), 40–85 % of flash droughts occurred during crop phenological phases.
• Northeast China and Northwest China exhibited the highest exposure and vulnerability to flash droughts.
• The vegetative phase showed the highest ratio of flash droughts among the three critical phenological phases (vegetative, reproductive, maturing).
• For CMIP6-based projections (present–2100), all five regions showed a substantial reduction in the duration of drought onset when considering the crop phenological phase compared to annual averages.
• This reduction was more prominent under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with a decrease of 40 %.
• Flash drought impacts would be significantly underestimated if crop phenology is overlooked, particularly in northern regions during the vegetative and reproductive phases.

Contributions

• Provides a novel perspective by integrating crop phenology into the evaluation framework for flash drought risk assessment.
• Revisits historical flash droughts and projects future risks in major Chinese croplands, highlighting the importance of crop growth stages.
• Quantifies the underestimation of flash drought impacts when crop phenology is not considered.
• Offers crucial insights for developing early warning systems, adaptive management strategies, and ensuring food security.

Funding

• Not mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhang2025Underestimated,
  author = {Zhang, Xinyu and Liu, Yi and Zhu, Ye and Wang, Zhimin and Ren, Liliang and Jiang, S. S. and Yang, Xiaoli and Qin, Tianling and Yuan, Zhe},
  title = {Underestimated future flash drought risks in major grain-producing areas over China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134531},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134531}
}