Wang et al. (2025) Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-15
• Authors: Yunfei Wang, Aizhong Ye, Duncan J. Quincey, William James
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, China
• School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK

Short Summary

This study developed a new glacier-hydrology coupled model to quantify the evolving regulatory function of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau glaciers under climate change, particularly during drought periods. It projects a significant decline (25–38 %) in glacier runoff contributions during future droughts by the late 21st century, weakening their buffering role for regional water security.

Objective

• To quantify how the hydrological regulatory function of glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will evolve under future climate change, especially during drought periods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), including specific basins like Upper Mekong and Upper Tarim.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (2000–2019) and projected future (2020–2098) periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM)
  • Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (DTVGM)
  • Glacier-hydrology coupled model (integration of OGGM and DTVGM)
• Data sources:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought identification.
  • Climate change scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5).
  • Implied: Precipitation data for SPI calculation, and other meteorological data for glacier and hydrological modeling.

Main Results

• Average annual glacier runoff on the QTP was approximately 5.49 x 10^10 cubic meters during 2000–2019, accounting for 9.6 % of total runoff.
• During historical drought years, glacier runoff compensated for reduced total runoff, with its contribution increasing by 8.9 % in July of the driest year.
• Glacier runoff is projected to decline in the future due to decreasing glacier storage, with substantial basin-specific variability.
• By the late 21st century (2080–2098), July glacier runoff contributions during droughts are projected to decrease by 25–38 % relative to the historical period.
• Glacier runoff contributions during droughts may vanish in some southeastern basins (e.g., Upper Mekong), while some northwestern basins (e.g., Upper Tarim) are projected to retain relatively high contributions.

Contributions

• Development of a new glacier-hydrology coupled model by integrating the Open Global Glacier Model and the Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model.
• First quantification of the evolving regulatory function of QTP glaciers during drought periods under future climate change scenarios.
• Provides critical insights into the weakening or potential loss of the buffering role of glaciers, highlighting challenges for regional water security and adaptation strategies.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Projected,
  author = {Wang, Yunfei and Ye, Aizhong and Quincey, Duncan J. and James, William},
  title = {Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583}
}