Liu et al. (2025) Projecting compound flood hazards induced by tropical cyclones in Southeast China using MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Qing Liu, Dirk Eilander, Qian Yao, Guofeng Wu, Huazhi Li, Irene Benito Lazaro, Qiyang Liu, Can Lu, Hanqing Xu, Jun Wang, Nigel Wright, Fengxue Qiao, Mengya Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134619

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
• Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
• Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
• East China Electric Power Design Institute of China Power Engineering Consulting Group Corporation, Shanghai, China
• School of Engineering, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
• School of Public Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated framework to project tropical cyclone-induced compound flood hazards in 60 cities across Southeast China, finding that over half of these cities are projected to experience more severe flooding under future climate scenarios.

Objective

• To evaluate the spatiotemporal changes and future hazards of tropical cyclone-induced compound flooding across 60 cities in Southeast China under current and future climate scenarios using a novel integrated hazard assessment framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 60 cities in Southeast China.
• Temporal Scale: Current climate (1960–2014) and future projections under the SSP585 scenario (2015–2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model, cascade of hydrodynamic models.
• Data sources: Tropical cyclone tracks detected from the MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model, combined with simulations of rainfall, storm tides, and river discharge.

Main Results

• More than half of the 60 cities in Southeast China are projected to experience more severe tropical cyclone-induced compound flooding under future climate scenarios (SSP585).
• Shanghai is projected to experience the largest increases in compound flood hazard, with the maximum flood volume rising by 83.6%.
• Flooding in 6 cities is projected to transition from single-driver to compound-dominated type (e.g., Suzhou and Nantong are projected to shift from rainfall-dominated to compound-dominated flooding).
• A detailed case study of Shanghai indicates a significant spatial expansion of areas dominated by compound flood drivers, with the flood-prone area fraction projected to increase from 60.6% to 78.1% under future climate scenarios.

Contributions

• Presents a novel integrated hazard assessment framework to evaluate tropical cyclone-induced compound flooding.
• Provides projections of future tropical cyclone-induced compound flood hazards under climate change (SSP585 scenario) for 60 cities in Southeast China, a highly vulnerable region.
• Identifies specific cities and regions with significant increases in compound flood hazard and shifts in dominant flood drivers under future climate scenarios.

Funding

• Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Liu2025Projecting,
  author = {Liu, Qing and Eilander, Dirk and Yao, Qian and Wu, Guofeng and Li, Huazhi and Lazaro, Irene Benito and Ward, Philip and Liu, Qiyang and Lu, Can and Xu, Hanqing and Wang, Jun and Wright, Nigel and Qiao, Fengxue and Li, Mengya},
  title = {Projecting compound flood hazards induced by tropical cyclones in Southeast China using MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134619},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134619}
}