Wang et al. (2025) Quantifying nonlinear synergistic effects of environmental changes on runoff change using segmented hydrological modeling

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-11
• Authors: Yueyang Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Zhenxin Bao, Asaad Y. Shamseldin, Yufan Jia, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Yanli Liu, Cuishan Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134778

Research Groups

• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing, China
• The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China
• Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, China
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
• Lower Changjiang River Bureau of Hydrological and Water Resources Survey, Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Nanjing, China

Short Summary

This study introduces a segmented hydrological modeling approach to quantify the nonlinear synergistic effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variation in the Wei River Basin. It finds that human activities are the dominant and escalating driver of runoff reduction, with the synergy between these factors significantly amplifying the overall decline.

Objective

• To quantify the nonlinear synergistic influence of environmental changes (climate change and human activities) on runoff using a segmented hydrological calibration and modelling approach, and to disentangle their individual and combined contributions to runoff alteration in the Wei River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Wei River Basin
• Temporal Scale: 1955–2022, analyzed in three periods: baseline (1955–1970), first decline period (1971–1995), and second decline period (1996–2022).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Segmented hydrological calibration and modelling approach.
• Data sources: Observed runoff data. (Specific climate and human activity data sources are not detailed in the provided text.)

Main Results

• From 1955 to 2022, observed runoff in the Wei River Basin exhibited a phased decline, with reductions of 31.8 % during 1971–1995 and 43.8 % during 1996–2022 relative to the 1955–1970 baseline.
• During 1971–1995, climate change accounted for a runoff decline of 4.29 mm, human activities for 22.49 mm, and their synergy contributed an additional 1.16 mm, representing 15.3 %, 80.5 %, and 4.2 % of the total reduction, respectively.
• From 1996 to 2022, the total runoff decrease was 38.48 mm compared to the baseline, with climate change (3.62 mm), human activities (32.27 mm), and their synergistic effect (2.59 mm) responsible for 9.4 %, 83.9 %, and 6.7 % of the decline, respectively.
• Human activities emerged as the dominant driver of runoff reduction, with an escalating influence over time, while the role of climate change gradually decreased. The synergy between these factors critically amplified the overall decline.

Contributions

This study introduces a novel segmented hydrological calibration and modelling approach to explicitly quantify the nonlinear synergistic effects of climate change and human activities on runoff, addressing a gap where previous studies often neglected or merged these synergistic contributions. This provides a more precise and comprehensive attribution analysis crucial for enhancing water resource planning and watershed management strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Quantifying,
  author = {Wang, Yueyang and Zhang, Jianyun and Bao, Zhenxin and Shamseldin, Asaad Y. and Jia, Yufan and Wang, Guoqing and Jin, Junliang and Liu, Yanli and Liu, Cuishan},
  title = {Quantifying nonlinear synergistic effects of environmental changes on runoff change using segmented hydrological modeling},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134778},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134778}
}