Li et al. (2025) Modeling the lake water balance of a closed alpine basin using a fully distributed hydrological framework: A case study of Qinghai Lake, China

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-21
• Authors: Zhenghao Li, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Yunliang Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134824

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
• International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
• School of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
• Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated hydrological modeling framework for Qinghai Lake, China, to quantify its water balance dynamics. It revealed that increasing basin-wide precipitation and runoff, coupled with declining lake evaporation, are the primary hydrological drivers behind the lake's recent water level rise.

Objective

• To quantify the underlying hydrological drivers of the notable rise in Qinghai Lake's water levels in recent decades.
• To propose a lake water balance analysis approach applicable to data-scarce plateau endorheic basins.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Qinghai Lake watershed, China.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly simulations from 2006 to 2018.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Fully distributed hydrological model (ESSI-3); empirical runoff coefficient approach.
• Data sources: Multi-source remote sensing datasets, hydro-meteorological datasets, observed streamflow from Buha and Shaliu Rivers, satellite-derived lake areas, in situ water level records.

Main Results

• The ESSI-3 model achieved high accuracy in streamflow calibration and validation (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.80, R² > 0.80).
• Model-simulated lake volume variations showed strong agreement with satellite-derived lake areas and in situ water level records (R² = 0.799, NSE = 0.721).
• Basin-wide precipitation and runoff exhibited overall increasing trends during the study period, with enhancement primarily concentrated in the summer monsoon season.
• Lake evaporation showed an overall declining trend from 2006 to 2018.
• The concurrent variations in precipitation, runoff, and evaporation provide a process-consistent hydrological interpretation for the sustained rise in Qinghai Lake water levels.

Contributions

• Developed an integrated lake water balance modeling framework by coupling a fully distributed hydrological model with multi-source remote sensing and hydro-meteorological datasets for a data-scarce, high-altitude endorheic basin.
• Provided a process-consistent and quantitatively constrained hydrological interpretation for the sustained rise in Qinghai Lake water levels.
• Proposed a reliable technical framework for hydrological assessment and climate impact analysis applicable to similar closed lake systems.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2025Modeling,
  author = {Li, Zhenghao and Zhang, Zhijie and Zhang, Wanchang and Li, Yunliang},
  title = {Modeling the lake water balance of a closed alpine basin using a fully distributed hydrological framework: A case study of Qinghai Lake, China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134824},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134824}
}