Franzke et al. (2025) Forced response and internal variability changes in the hydrological cycle and general circulation in a hot world beyond 2100 in the Community Earth System Model

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-19
• Authors: Christian L. E. Franzke, Sun‐Seon Lee, Yu Huang, Susmit Subhransu Satpathy
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae2f73

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract, but the use of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) implies a collaborative effort by the CESM community.

Short Summary

This study uses ensemble simulations with CESM2 to investigate changes in the hydrological cycle's forced response and internal variability beyond 2100. It finds that the dominant mode of the hydrological cycle's forced response changes sign in the early 22nd century due to atmospheric circulation shifts, subsequently reducing the amplitude of internal variability.

Objective

• To elucidate the changes in the forced response and internal variability of the hydrological cycle in a hot world beyond 2100 using the Community Earth System Model version 2.
• To understand how the hydrological cycle will change under future climate scenarios, particularly concerning the interplay between forced response and internal variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (implied by the use of a Community Earth System Model).
• Temporal Scale: Beyond 2100, with a specific focus on the early 22nd century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2).
• Data sources: Ensemble simulations generated by CESM2.

Main Results

• The dominant mode of the hydrological cycle's forced response undergoes a sign change in the early 22nd century, even as greenhouse gas emissions are decreasing.
• Pronounced atmospheric circulation changes are identified as the primary cause for this observed shift in the hydrological cycle.
• The dominant modes of internal variability exhibit a significant reduction in their amplitude after the forced response mode changes its sign, suggesting a substantial impact of the forced response on internal variability.

Contributions

• Provides novel insights into the interaction between the forced response and internal variability of the hydrological cycle in a future hot climate beyond 2100.
• Highlights the critical role of atmospheric circulation changes in driving shifts in the hydrological cycle's forced response.
• Demonstrates how the forced response can significantly influence the amplitude of internal variability, offering important implications for long-term anthropogenic climate change projections.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Franzke2025Forced,
  author = {Franzke, Christian L. E. and Lee, Sun‐Seon and Huang, Yu and Satpathy, Susmit Subhransu},
  title = {Forced response and internal variability changes in the hydrological cycle and general circulation in a hot world beyond 2100 in the Community Earth System Model},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae2f73},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2f73}
}