Zhang et al. (2026) Propagation mechanisms of meteorological to hydrological events in inland river basins of Northwest China: Considering compound climate changes

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-03
• Authors: S. Zhang, Yixuan Wang, TingXi Liu, Limin Duan, Jianguo Ji, Xuan Zhang, Wenbo Song, J. Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134900

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
• College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
• Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and High-Efficient Utilization of Water Resources, College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
• Autonomous Region Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Reaches of the Yellow River, Hohhot, China

Short Summary

This study investigated the propagation mechanisms of meteorological to hydrological events in five inland river basins of Northwest China, revealing how compound climate changes modulate drought and flood propagation probabilities and thresholds. It found distinct responses in rainfall-runoff versus snowmelt-runoff dominated basins to climate drying and warming trends over the past six decades.

Objective

• To understand the underlying mechanisms of meteorological to hydrological event propagation in arid inland basins, specifically how compound climate changes modulate the state-dependent behaviors and threshold dynamics of drought and flood propagation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Five representative inland river basins in Northwest China (Xilin, Tabu, Heihe, Manas, and Kaidu River Basins).
• Temporal Scale: Over the past six decades (approximately 60 years, from the mid-20th century to the early 21st century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A basin-scale framework was developed to link compound climate changes to the propagation of meteorological and hydrological events. No specific named hydrological models (e.g., ISBA, mHM) were mentioned.
• Data sources: Implied historical meteorological and hydrological observational data over the study period. Specific data types (e.g., satellite, reanalysis) were not detailed.

Main Results

• Over the past six decades, the Xilin and Tabu River Basins shifted from cooling-wetting to warming-drying trends, with a significant turning point during 1997–1998.
  • Driven by this shift, drought propagation probabilities rose by 6 % and 131 %, respectively.
  • Corresponding thresholds for drought duration and severity decreased by 22 % and 18 % in the Xilin River Basin, and by 5 % and 9 % in the Tabu River Basin.
  • Flood propagation remained limited in these basins.
• In contrast, the Heihe, Manas, and Kaidu River Basins transitioned from cooling-drying to warming-wetting trends, exhibiting a shift point around 1993–1997.
  • Under this climatic transition, flood propagation probabilities increased by up to 203 %.
  • Thresholds for flood duration and severity declined by 2–18 % and 6–18 %, respectively.
  • Drought propagation showed only minor changes in these basins.
• Propagation mechanisms were significantly modulated by compound climate change involving both temperature and humidity.
• Eastern rainfall–runoff dominated basins (Xilin, Tabu) exhibit a higher sensitivity to climate drying.
• Western snowmelt–runoff dominated basins (Heihe, Manas, Kaidu) are more susceptible to climate warming.

Contributions

• Developed a novel basin-scale framework to link compound climate changes with the propagation of meteorological and hydrological events.
• Quantitatively revealed the state-dependent behaviors and threshold dynamics for both drought and flood propagation under changing climate conditions.
• Provided insights into how compound climate changes (involving temperature and humidity) modulate the mechanisms of extreme event propagation.
• Identified differential sensitivities of rainfall-runoff dominated basins (more sensitive to drying) versus snowmelt-runoff dominated basins (more susceptible to warming) in Northwest China.
• Offered a scientific basis for understanding the formation mechanisms of hydrological extremes in arid inland river basins.

Funding

No specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes were provided in the excerpt.

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Propagation,
  author = {Zhang, S. and Wang, Yixuan and Liu, TingXi and Duan, Limin and Ji, Jianguo and Zhang, Xuan and Song, Wenbo and Liu, J.},
  title = {Propagation mechanisms of meteorological to hydrological events in inland river basins of Northwest China: Considering compound climate changes},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134900},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134900}
}