Li et al. (2026) Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China’s large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-13
• Authors: Xinyu Li, Kaiwen Wang, Qiuyu Luo, Guan Wang, Yu Lü, Jiamiao Yu, Changming Liu, Xiaomang Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134953

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Sino-Danish College, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited, Beijing, China
• State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study analyzes interannual trends in runoff magnitude and variability across 913 large reservoir drainage areas in China using ISIMIP3a runoff simulations. It attributes these trends to anthropogenic climate change (ACC), natural climate variability (NCV), and human water and land management (HWLM), finding ACC dominates magnitude trends while variability trends are driven by a combination of NCV, HWLM, and ACC.

Objective

• To analyze interannual trends in the magnitude and variability of actual runoff (Ra)-related indicators (actual runoff volume (Qa), standardized runoff index (SRI-12), drought frequency (Df), and pluvial frequency (Pf)) in China's large reservoir drainage areas.
• To attribute these observed trends to anthropogenic climate change (ACC), natural climate variability (NCV), and human water and land management (HWLM).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 913 large reservoir drainage areas in China, with a focus on the eastern belt of the Hu Line.
• Temporal Scale: Interannual trends.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3a (ISIMIP3a) runoff simulations, ISIMIP3a attribution framework.
• Data sources: Precise drainage boundaries of 913 large reservoirs in China, ISIMIP3a runoff simulations.

Main Results

• 60–70% of reservoirs exhibit drying trends in interannual magnitude (Qa, SRI-12, Df, Pf), concentrated in the eastern belt of the Hu Line.
• Interannual variability trends are inconsistent, with 20–50% of reservoirs showing enhancing variability.
• Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) dominates magnitude trends, contributing 75–85% on average.
• Natural climate variability (NCV) dominates variability trends in actual runoff volume (Qa) and drought frequency (Df).
• Human water and land management (HWLM) primarily drives standardized runoff index (SRI-12) variability.
• NCV and ACC jointly dominate pluvial frequency (Pf) variability.

Contributions

• Bridges a knowledge gap by analyzing Ra-related variations and their underlying drivers in a large number of reservoir drainage areas in China, leveraging precise drainage boundaries and global hydrological model simulations.
• Provides a comprehensive attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability trends to specific drivers (ACC, NCV, HWLM), offering critical insights for water resource management.
• Informs adaptive reservoir management strategies under changing environmental conditions by highlighting the dominant drivers of runoff changes.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2026Attribution,
  author = {Li, Xinyu and Wang, Kaiwen and Luo, Qiuyu and Wang, Guan and Lü, Yu and Jiang, Haining and Yu, Jiamiao and Liu, Changming and Liu, Xiaomang},
  title = {Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China’s large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134953},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134953}
}