Zhang et al. (2026) Climate modulation and intensity-stratified moisture sources in major global river basins

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-28
• Authors: Xingxing Zhang, Z. Wang, Tomasz Janus, Hou Jiang, Zhaofei Liu, Liguang Jiang, Yizhu Zhu, Yaozhi Jiang, Zhijun Yao, Hua Wu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135049

Research Groups

• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
• College of Information Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, China
• Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
• School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
• College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study presents a global, intensity-stratified analysis of moisture sources and transport across seven major river basins, revealing that the coupling between precipitation and moisture transport modes varies significantly across ocean-dominated, mixed-source, and land-dominated basin regimes, with higher-order modes being crucial for seasonal transitions and heavy precipitation. The findings demonstrate that mean moisture source fractions alone are insufficient to explain precipitation variability and extremes, highlighting the importance of intensity-stratified analysis for understanding basin-specific hydroclimatic responses.

Objective

• To understand how atmospheric moisture pathways regulate precipitation variability and extremes in major global river basins under climate change, by identifying dominant and higher-order moisture transport modes and assessing their roles in seasonal and extreme precipitation across different basin regimes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on seven major river basins.
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal, multi-decadal shifts, and extreme precipitation events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WAM-2layers model.
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis, precipitationshed diagnostics, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis.

Main Results

• River basins are classified into ocean-dominated, mixed-source, and land-dominated regimes based on the structure and variability of moisture transport.
• Ocean-dominated basins exhibit coherent moisture pathways and strong coupling between precipitation and the leading moisture transport mode.
• Land-dominated and high-latitude basins show weaker coupling and a greater reliance on higher-order moisture transport modes, particularly during seasonal transitions and heavy precipitation events.
• Mixed-source basins maintain robust precipitation–transport relationships despite pronounced seasonal shifts in moisture sources.
• Regime-dependent multi-decadal shifts in moisture source regions and seasonally varying climate influences on transport modes were identified.
• Mean moisture source fractions alone are insufficient to explain precipitation variability and extremes, underscoring the importance of intensity-stratified analysis.

Contributions

• Provides a novel global, intensity-stratified analysis of moisture sources and transport, moving beyond mean moisture source fractions to explain precipitation variability and extremes.
• Identifies and characterizes dominant and higher-order moisture transport modes and their specific roles in seasonal and extreme precipitation across diverse river basins.
• Introduces a classification of river basins into ocean-dominated, mixed-source, and land-dominated regimes based on moisture transport characteristics.
• Enhances the understanding of basin-specific hydroclimatic responses to atmospheric moisture pathways, offering valuable insights for future hydrological predictions and climate adaptation strategies.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Climate,
  author = {Zhang, Xingxing and Wang, Z. and Janus, Tomasz and Jiang, Hou and Liu, Zhaofei and Jiang, Liguang and Zhu, Yizhu and Jiang, Yaozhi and Yao, Zhijun and Wu, Hua},
  title = {Climate modulation and intensity-stratified moisture sources in major global river basins},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135049},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135049}
}