Ye et al. (2026) Leveraging water vapor to extend forecast horizons for forecast-informed reservoir operations: a vapor-precipitation-streamflow three-line defense

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-09
• Authors: Hao Ye, Pan Liu, Xiaojing Zhang, Lei Cheng, Weibo Liu, Qian Cheng, Lei Guo, Jing Huang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135282

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
• Research Institute for Water Security (RIWS), Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
• Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
• CIECC, Beijing 100048, China
• Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, China

Short Summary

This study proposes a vapor-precipitation-streamflow (VPS) Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) scheme that leverages precipitable water vapor (PWV) to extend forecast horizons. The VPS-FIRO scheme enables earlier prerelease operations, reducing spilled water volume by 5.6% and decreasing the duration of excessive outflow from 1% to 0.3% compared to traditional precipitation-streamflow (PS) FIRO.

Objective

• To propose a vapor-precipitation-streamflow (VPS) FIRO scheme that leverages precipitable water vapor (PWV) to extend forecast horizons for forecast-informed reservoir operations.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of VPS-FIRO in enhancing floodwater utilization and reducing spilled water compared to traditional precipitation-streamflow (PS) FIRO using historical flood events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Jiaokou Reservoir in Zhejiang Province, China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical flood events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Vapor-Precipitation-Streamflow (VPS) FIRO scheme.
  • Precipitation-Streamflow (PS) FIRO scheme (for comparison).
  • Atmospheric water balance (to derive potential precipitation from water vapor).
• Data sources:
  • Precipitable water vapor (PWV) data.
  • Precipitation data.
  • Streamflow data.
  • Historical flood data for the Jiaokou Reservoir.

Main Results

• Potential precipitation (PP), derived from water vapor, provides a reliable upper bound for actual precipitation, with a maximum precipitation-to-PP ratio of 0.86.
• The prerelease operations under the VPS-FIRO scheme occur 24 hours earlier than under the PS-FIRO scheme.
• The mean volume of spilled water at the Jiaokou Reservoir is reduced by 5.6% when using VPS-FIRO compared to PS-FIRO.
• The duration of exceeding the maximum prerelease outflow decreases from 1% to 0.3% under VPS-FIRO.

Contributions

• Introduces a novel methodology for integrating water vapor information into Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to significantly extend forecast horizons.
• Proposes the vapor-precipitation-streamflow (VPS) three-line defense approach, which enhances floodwater utilization and improves reservoir operational efficiency.
• Demonstrates the practical benefits of using precipitable water vapor for earlier flood warnings and reduced flood control losses in reservoir management.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ye2026Leveraging,
  author = {Ye, Hao and Liu, Pan and Zhang, Xiaojing and Cheng, Lei and Liu, Weibo and Cheng, Qian and Guo, Lei and Huang, Jing},
  title = {Leveraging water vapor to extend forecast horizons for forecast-informed reservoir operations: a vapor-precipitation-streamflow three-line defense},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135282},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135282}
}