Wu et al. (2026) Widespread diverse impacts of climate change on the multi-attribute characteristics of flash drought in China: A three-dimensional dynamic assessment based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-31
• Authors: Chuanhao Wu, Pat J.F. Yeh, Zitao Li, Jiayun Li, Kaiqin Xu, Min Shi, Jie Niu, Wenpeng Wang, Xiaoyan Cao, Qiongfang Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135427

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University, Malaysia Campus, Malaysia
• College of Environment and Climate, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
• Fujian Provincial Key Lab of Coastal Basin Environment, Fujian Polytechnic Normal University, Fuqing, China
• Department of Biology and Engineering of Environment, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
• The College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Guizhou University, Guiyang, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan, China

Short Summary

This study proposes a comprehensive framework to project the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of flash drought (FD) in China under future climate change scenarios. It finds that climate change will exacerbate FD severity and intensity across most of China, prolong its duration, and extend the migration distance of long-duration events, while maintaining the overall migration direction.

Objective

• To assess how the spatiotemporal dynamic risk and multi-attribute characteristics of flash drought (FD) will change under future climate warming in China, utilizing a three-dimensional dynamic assessment based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National total area of China.
• Temporal Scale: Future climate change projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 multi-GCM ensembles, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and an extended three-dimensional (3D) FD identification method.
• Data sources: Climate projections from CMIP6 multi-GCM ensembles.

Main Results

• Climate change is projected to significantly influence FD characteristics, with varying impacts on different attributes.
• FD severity and intensity are expected to exacerbate for approximately 75.3% of China's national total area under all three SSP scenarios.
• FD duration is projected to prolong by 4.2% to 9.7%, with more significant increases under higher SSP scenarios.
• The migration distance of long-duration (>2-month) FD events tends to extend over time under all SSP scenarios.
• An expansion of the FD impact area in China is projected under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, reaching up to 36.4%.
• Climate change will not alter the overall migration direction of FD, which primarily moves from humid South China to arid and semi-arid North China regions.

Contributions

• Proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of FD by integrating CMIP6 multi-GCM ensembles, the VIC model, and an extended three-dimensional FD identification method.
• Provides a novel three-dimensional dynamic assessment of projected changes in multi-attribute FD characteristics across China under future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585).
• Emphasizes the critical importance of understanding climate warming impacts on FD from a multi-attribute perspective, addressing limitations in previous FD identification methods and global climate model uncertainties.

Funding

• Funding information is not explicitly provided in the given paper text.

Citation

@article{Wu2026Widespread,
  author = {Wu, Chuanhao and Yeh, Pat J.F. and Li, Zitao and Li, Jiayun and Xu, Kaiqin and Shi, Min and Niu, Jie and Wang, Wenpeng and Cao, Xiaoyan and Li, Qiongfang},
  title = {Widespread diverse impacts of climate change on the multi-attribute characteristics of flash drought in China: A three-dimensional dynamic assessment based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135427},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135427}
}