Abbasizadeh et al. (2026) How does temperature causally influence short-term streamflow response? Evidence from 1604 catchments across the UK, Central Europe, and Australia

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Hossein Abbasizadeh, Petr Máca, Urmi Ninad, Martin Hanel
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135945

Research Groups

• Department of Water Resources and Environmental, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
• Department of Computer Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Short Summary

This study investigates the causal effect of temperature on short-term streamflow response using a causal discovery algorithm (PCMCIplus) applied to 1604 catchments across the UK, Central Europe, and Australia. The results show that temperature has a nonlinear causal effect on streamflow at different lags.

Objective

• Investigate the causal relationship between temperature and streamflow in various hydroclimatic regions.
• Estimate the nonlinear causal effects of temperature on streamflow at different lags (0, 1, and 2 days).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on three distinct climatic regions: the United Kingdom, Central Europe, and Australia.
• Temporal Scale: Daily time series data from 1985 to 2015.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: PCMCIplus causal discovery algorithm for causal structure inference, and random forest regressor for causal effect estimation.
• Data sources: CAMELS-GB, LamaH, and CAMELS-AUS hydrological datasets.

Main Results

• The study found that temperature has a nonlinear causal effect on streamflow at different lags (0, 1, and 2 days).
• The results show that the causal effect of temperature on streamflow varies across different climatic regions and catchment conditions.
• Soil conductivity, snow fraction, and topographic characteristics are dominant controls on Q∼T variability.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the causal interactions between temperature, precipitation, and streamflow at the catchment scale.
• The results can improve our understanding of future water availability and extreme events under a changing climate.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Abbasizadeh2026How,
  author = {Abbasizadeh, Hossein and Máca, Petr and Ninad, Urmi and Hanel, Martin},
  title = {How does temperature causally influence short-term streamflow response? Evidence from 1604 catchments across the UK, Central Europe, and Australia},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135945},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135945}
}