Newell et al. (2026) Diverging seasonal trends in soil moisture in Northern Europe

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-03
• Authors: Matthew Lee Newell, Martin Drews, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Mark Payne
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135976

Research Groups

• Technical University of Denmark, Division of Climate and Energy Policy (DTU Management)
• Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

Short Summary

This study examines seasonal and sub-seasonal patterns in average and extreme soil moisture conditions across Northern Europe, highlighting emerging trends and changing hydrological conditions with potential high regional impacts.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on soil moisture conditions in Northern Europe.
• Analyze the relationship between precipitation changes and soil moisture extremes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern European domain (Fenno-Scandia, Baltic States)
• Temporal Scale: 1961-2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5-Land reanalysis product
• Data sources: High-resolution meteorological data from ERA5-Land, including precipitation, snowfall, mean air temperature, surface pressure, wind speed, solar radiation, and thermal radiation.

Main Results

• The number of soil moisture surplus days (SMSD) has increased by 9.9 days in southern Norway and central Sweden.
• Consecutive soil moisture surplus days (CSMSD) have increased by 5.3 days in the same regions.
• The number of soil moisture deficit days (SMDD) has increased by 6.3 days in spring, particularly in southern areas of Northern Europe.
• Consecutive soil moisture deficit days (CSMDD) have increased by 6.1 days in the same regions.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of soil moisture trends in Northern Europe, highlighting the importance of considering seasonal and sub-seasonal processes.
• The findings suggest that climate change is driving changes in soil moisture conditions, with potential implications for hydrological hazards and land use management.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Newell2026Diverging,
  author = {Newell, Matthew Lee and Drews, Martin and Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl and Payne, Mark},
  title = {Diverging seasonal trends in soil moisture in Northern Europe},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135976},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135976}
}