Jiang et al. (2026) Quantifying hydrological responses to climate change and associated canopy variability using an integrated LSTM-SWAT modeling framework

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-10
• Authors: Kunhao Jiang, Hui Ran, Xinyi Chen, Yingnan Wei, Yuanxin Dai, Qiang Yu, Hao Feng, Xiaotao Hu, Ning Yao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135998

Research Groups

• College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University (NWAFU)
• Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University
• College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University (NWAFU)

Short Summary

This study integrated a modeling framework to assess scenario-based hydrological responses in the Weihe River Basin through 2100, considering climate change and associated canopy variability.

Objective

• Investigate the combined effects of climate change and climate-driven canopy variability on individual water-balance components across complex terrains.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focused on the Weihe River Basin (WRB) in China.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spanned from 2010 to 2100, with a focus on projected future climate scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT).
• Data sources: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP245) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585).

Main Results

• The LSTM-based approach reasonably represented climate-driven canopy variability (R2 > 0.90), projecting increasing canopy density under future climate scenarios.
• Climate change was projected to intensify simulated hydrological fluxes, with mean streamflow increases of 12.0% under SSP245 and 21.2% under SSP585.
• The integrated climate-canopy scenarios moderated these increases to 10.7% and 19.4%, respectively, through enhanced evapotranspiration (ET).
• Terrain-dependent variations in hydrological sensitivity were identified, with plain regions exhibiting stronger responses in surface runoff and groundwater flow.

Contributions

This study provides scenario-based diagnostic evidence for assessing how climate-driven canopy variability may moderate hydrological responses in topographically diverse watersheds.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52109224) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2022B001).

Citation

@article{Jiang2026Quantifying,
  author = {Jiang, Kunhao and Ran, Hui and Chen, Xinyi and Wei, Yingnan and Dai, Yuanxin and Yu, Qiang and Feng, Hao and Hu, Xiaotao and Yao, Ning},
  title = {Quantifying hydrological responses to climate change and associated canopy variability using an integrated LSTM-SWAT modeling framework},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135998},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135998}
}