Prashant et al. (2026) Compound droughts as emergent outcomes of cascading drought propagation

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-21
• Authors: Prashant Prashant, Surendra Kumar Mishra, Anil Kumar Lohani, Vijay P. Singh
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136068

Research Groups

• Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee
• Surface Water Hydrology Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee
• Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA

Short Summary

This study investigates compound drought as an emergent outcome of cascading drought propagation across Peninsular India using a framework that integrates drought propagation analyses with machine learning emulation.

Objective

• Investigate the coupled and non-linear interactions among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought types that give rise to compound drought conditions in Peninsular India

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Peninsular India)
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Copula-based Compound Peninsular India Drought Index (CPIDI) with machine learning emulation using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)
• Data sources: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)

Main Results

• Compound droughts emerge as outcomes of cascading drought propagation across Peninsular India
• CPIDI captured major historical drought years across SPEI scales with high test performance
• SHAP indicated that the CPIDI emulators relied mainly on SSI-1, SRI-1, and the scale-matched SPEI

Contributions

• This study provides empirical evidence that compound droughts emerge as outcomes of cascading drought propagation
• The integrated framework provides a methodological foundation for future operational drought monitoring and assessment for water resources

Funding

• This research was funded by [project/program name] with reference code [reference code].

Citation

@article{Prashant2026Compound,
  author = {Prashant, Prashant and Mishra, Surendra Kumar and Lohani, Anil Kumar and Singh, Vijay P.},
  title = {Compound droughts as emergent outcomes of cascading drought propagation},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136068},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136068}
}