Sarkar et al. (2026) Global changes in precipitable water vapour during 1980–2100 and its spatial, temporal, radiative and causal insights for enhanced climate warming

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-23
• Authors: S. Sarkar, J. Kuttippurath, Gopalakrishna Pillai Gopikrishnan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136077

Research Groups

• CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur

Short Summary

This study analyzes global and regional trends in precipitable water vapour (TCWV) from 1980 to 2020 using ERA5 data, identifying key drivers and their impact on climate warming.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial and temporal variability of TCWV and its causal relationships with atmospheric and oceanic processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and regional (Amazon, Central Africa, Southeast Asia, Sahara, Sahel, Third Pole)
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis v5 (ERA5), multi-linear regression (MLR), Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI)
• Data sources: ERA5, CMIP6 model future projections

Main Results

• TCWV shows increasing trends over oceans, with strongest seasonal increases over the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
• Amazonia, Central Africa, and West Pacific Warm Pool are critical moisture hubs governing the global hydrological cycle.
• PCMCI identifies regionally distinct drivers of TCWV, including evaporation, Sea Surface Temperature, wind divergence, and teleconnected influences.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of TCWV dynamics and its causal relationships with climate change, advancing our knowledge of the Earth's climate system.

Funding

• No funding information provided in the paper.

Citation

@article{Sarkar2026Global,
  author = {Sarkar, S. and Kuttippurath, J. and Gopikrishnan, Gopalakrishna Pillai},
  title = {Global changes in precipitable water vapour during 1980–2100 and its spatial, temporal, radiative and causal insights for enhanced climate warming},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136077},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136077}
}