Basheer et al. (2026) Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Mohammed Basheer, Zuhal Elnour, Cristo Facundo Pérez, Wenxi Liao, Khalid Siddig, Claudia Ringler
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136135

Research Groups

• Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Canada
• Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-Universit¨at zu Berlin, Germany
• Agricultural Economics and Policy Research Centre, Agricultural Research Corporation, Sudan
• School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Canada
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Khartoum, Sudan
• Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA

Short Summary

This study assesses the biophysical and economy-wide impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change.

Objective

• Evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change.
• Assess the effects of climate change on streamflow, water allocation, and hydropower generation in the Nile Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Nile River Basin in Sudan, with a spatial scale of approximately 1.3 million km2.
• Temporal Scale: The study spans from 2030 to 2050, with a temporal resolution of daily time steps for hydrological modeling and monthly time steps for river system modeling.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modeling.
  • Python Water Resources (Pywr) simulation tool for river system modeling.
  • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for economy-wide impacts assessment.
• Data sources:
  • Climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).
  • Hydrological data from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6).
  • Economic data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Central Bank of Sudan.

Main Results

• The study projects an increase in naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change, with variations in magnitude under different climate models and scenarios.
• The phased development scenario indicates a projected increase in annual hydropower generation in Sudan by up to 8.1 TWh by 2050.
• The study also projects an expansion of irrigated wheat area by 283% by 2050.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the biophysical and economy-wide impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change, highlighting the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance.
• The results underscore the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions for infrastructure development in the Nile Basin.

Funding

• This research was funded by the [insert funding agency/project name] with reference code [insert reference code].

Citation

@article{Basheer2026Integrated,
  author = {Basheer, Mohammed and Elnour, Zuhal and Pérez, Cristo Facundo and Liao, Wenxi and Siddig, Khalid and Ringler, Claudia},
  title = {Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136135},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136135}
}