Salar-Khorasani et al. (2026) Forensic hydrological assessment of flood response under land use/land cover (LULC) change using ANN and HEC–HMS

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-31
• Authors: Seyed-Mahdi Salar-Khorasani, Omid Bozorg Haddad, Hugo A. Loáiciga
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136137

Research Groups

• Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Tehran, Iran
• Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA

Short Summary

This study develops an integrative methodological framework combining forensic hydrology, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and physically-based hydrological modeling to assess the impacts of projected land use/land cover (LULC) changes on future flood dynamics in the upstream watershed of Golestan Dam, Iran. The simulations revealed highly non-linear growth in peak discharges due to increased barren land contribution.

Objective

• Investigate the cascading effects of projected LULC changes on future flood dynamics using a combination of forensic hydrology, ANNs, and physically-based hydrological modeling.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Watershed scale (upstream of Golestan Dam)
• Temporal Scale: 2030, 2040, and 2050

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)
  • Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) not mentioned but HEC-HMS is used.
• Data sources:
  • Satellite data for LULC changes
  • Reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• Highly non-linear growth in peak discharges due to increased barren land contribution, with the Qarah Shur sub-basin projected to experience a 163.78% increase in flood intensity by 2050.
• The Galikesh sub-basin followed with a 68.99% increase by 2050, driven by road expansion.

Contributions

• This work provides an integrative methodological framework for assessing the impacts of LULC changes on future flood dynamics, highlighting the importance of considering non-linear growth in peak discharges due to increased barren land contribution.
• The study underscores growing risks to infrastructure and water quality under increasing flood risk.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{SalarKhorasani2026Forensic,
  author = {Salar-Khorasani, Seyed-Mahdi and Haddad, Omid Bozorg and Loáiciga, Hugo A.},
  title = {Forensic hydrological assessment of flood response under land use/land cover (LULC) change using ANN and HEC–HMS},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136137},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136137}
}