Liu et al. (2026) Differential response of floods to climate change and human activities in the Yalu River over the past two millennia: insights from hydrological modeling

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-02
• Authors: Shengjing Liu, Yong Shi, Tao Liu, Tao Jiang, Chipeng He, Jixuan Lyu, Afei Hou, Guang Yang, Yang Yang, Xiaomei Xu, Shuo Zhang, Jianhua Gao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136155

Research Groups

• School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University
• Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University
• College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University
• East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources
• Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study reconstructs annual peak flow in the Yalu River over the past 2000 years using a hydrological model (HYDROTREND) and quantifies the differential impacts of climate change and human activities on floods of varying intensities.

Objective

• Investigate the long-term evolution patterns of floods in the Yalu River basin under the synergistic effects of climate and human activities.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Yalu River basin, a major river system in East Asia.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans 2000 years, with data from historical documents and instrumental records used to reconstruct flood patterns.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HYDROTREND hydrological model combined with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis.
• Data sources: Historical documents, instrumental records from hydrological stations, satellite data, and reanalysis products.

Main Results

• The study finds that human activities (reservoir regulation and changes in forest coverage) have a greater impact on small-to-medium floods (>23%), while climate change affects extreme floods more significantly (>27.06%).
• Variations in flood intensity are broadly consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with El Niño events strengthening and La Niña events weakening flood intensity.

Contributions

• This study provides a scientific basis for basin-scale flood risk assessment and management under changing climatic and human activity conditions.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both climate change and human activities in flood risk assessments.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development (Grant No. 2020M65100) and the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies (Grant No. 2021SCSSC001).

Citation

@article{Liu2026Differential,
  author = {Liu, Shengjing and Shi, Yong and Liu, Tao and Jiang, Tao and He, Chipeng and Lyu, Jixuan and Hou, Afei and Yang, Guang and Yang, Yang and Xu, Xiaomei and Zhang, Shuo and Gao, Jianhua},
  title = {Differential response of floods to climate change and human activities in the Yalu River over the past two millennia: insights from hydrological modeling},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136155},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136155}
}