Afzal et al. (2026) Projected depletion of high mountain Asia glaciers by 2100: linking mass loss to asynchronous peak runoff

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-08
• Authors: Muhammad Mannan Afzal, Fuming Xie, Yu Zhu, Adeel Ahmad Nadeem, Fazli Hameed, Yi Luo, Tandong Yao, Fubao Sun, Xin Wang, Qiao Liu, Jyoti Karki, Jun Zhou, Shiyin Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136205

Research Groups

• Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
• Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
• School of Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
• College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
• Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Centre for Agri-cultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Develop-mental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
• Directorate of Onfarm Water Management, KPK 25000, Pakistan
• Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
• College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
• State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
• School of Earth Science and Geospatial Information Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China
• Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China

Short Summary

This study projects the depletion of High Mountain Asia glaciers by 2100, linking mass loss to asynchronous peak runoff. The results show that glacier mass declines by 70.7 ± 9.6% by 2100 and total GR falls by 10 ± 6.5% between the early (2001–2020) and late (2081–2100) century periods.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on glacier mass balance and runoff in High Mountain Asia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering 17 major HMA basins.
• Temporal Scale: Historical data from 1940 to present and projections until 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: OGGM v1.6.1.
• Data sources: Bias-corrected GSWP3-W5E5 historical data, CMIP6 GCMs under 4 SSP scenarios.

Main Results

• By 2100, HMA-wide glacier mass declines by 70.7 ± 9.6% relative to 2000 levels.
• Total GR falls by 10 ± 6.5% between the early (2001–2020) and late (2081–2100) century periods.
• Small, low-elevation glaciers have already passed peak runoff in many basins.
• Large, high-elevation glaciers continue buffering downstream flows well into the late 21st century.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of considering class-specific runoff transitions when planning water resources across HMA.
• The results underscore the need for basin-specific, class-resolved projections to accurately capture the impact of climate change on glacier mass balance and runoff.

Funding

• Not specified in the paper.

Citation

@article{Afzal2026Projected,
  author = {Afzal, Muhammad Mannan and Xie, Fuming and Zhu, Yu and Nadeem, Adeel Ahmad and Hameed, Fazli and Luo, Yi and Yao, Tandong and Sun, Fubao and Wang, Xin and Liu, Qiao and Karki, Jyoti and Zhou, Jun and Liu, Shiyin},
  title = {Projected depletion of high mountain Asia glaciers by 2100: linking mass loss to asynchronous peak runoff},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136205},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136205}
}