Wang et al. (2026) Unveiling the propagation and driving mechanisms of socioeconomic drought in the Aral Sea Basin: A vine copula and system dynamics ensemble simulation framework

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-10
• Authors: H. Wang, Y.P. Li, Guohe Huang, Y. Ma, Q. Zhang, P.P. WANG
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136206

Research Groups

• School of Atmospheric Sciences and Remote Sensing, Wuxi University (China)
• State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University (China)
• Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina (Canada)
• Key Laboratory of Urban Air Particulate Pollution Prevention and Control of Ministry of Ecology and Environment, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University (China)
• Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University (China)

Short Summary

This study develops a novel framework to simulate the propagation of socioeconomic drought in the Aral Sea Basin using vine copula and system dynamics ensemble simulation. The framework excels at simulating social water supply and demand, estimating drought propagation risks under various scenarios, and quantifying the impacts of human activities and climate change on drought propagation.

Objective

• Investigate the complex relationships between meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and socioeconomic drought in the Aral Sea Basin.
• Develop a novel framework to simulate the propagation of socioeconomic drought using vine copula and system dynamics ensemble simulation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) in Central Asia.
• Temporal Scale: The study covers the period from 2015 to 2050.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Vine copula
  • System dynamics (SD)
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
• Data sources:
  • Satellite data
  • Observation data
  • Reanalysis data

Main Results

• The average probability of drought propagation is expected to reach 48% by 2050, with hydrological drought exerting twice the impact of meteorological drought on propagation probability.
• Significant spatial heterogeneity exists in driving contributions, with human activities dominating drought propagation in the Amu Darya Basin and climate change prevailing in the Syr Darya Basin.

Contributions

• This study provides a novel framework to simulate the propagation of socioeconomic drought using vine copula and system dynamics ensemble simulation.
• The results highlight the need for tailored agricultural development policies under climate change to suppress drought risk propagation into the socioeconomic domain.

Funding

• This research was funded by the State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability (Grant No. LREES202206).
• The project was also supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52279202).

Citation

@article{Wang2026Unveiling,
  author = {Wang, H. and Li, Y.P. and Huang, Guohe and Ma, Y. and Zhang, Q. and WANG, P.P.},
  title = {Unveiling the propagation and driving mechanisms of socioeconomic drought in the Aral Sea Basin: A vine copula and system dynamics ensemble simulation framework},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136206},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136206}
}