Li et al. (2026) Precipitation amount versus precipitation phase: a threshold in precipitation-amount change governs the shift in their relative influence on snowmelt dynamics

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-12
• Authors: Dongsheng Li, Wei Ouyang, Shaoqing Liu, Jie Tang, Jing Chen, Kaiyue Ji, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Soyol-Erdene Tseren-Ochir
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136230

Research Groups

• Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Wastewater Information Analysis and Early Warning, Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, School of Technology for Sustainability, Beijing Normal University
• School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Beijing Normal University
• Department of Biology, National University of Mongolia
• Department of Green Energy and Engineering, School of Engineering and ⋅Technology, National University of Mongolia

Short Summary

This study investigates the relative importance of precipitation amount and temperature-driven precipitation phase transitions on snowmelt dynamics in Mongolia. The results show that a threshold of ±23 mm/decade in precipitation amount change governs the shift in dominant control on snowmelt variability.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of precipitation amount and temperature-driven precipitation phase shifts on snowmelt dynamics in Mongolia

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mongolia
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1980–2023) and future (2040–2099) periods

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Terrain-enhanced temperature index model
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data

Main Results

• A threshold of ±23 mm/decade in precipitation amount change governs the shift in dominant control on snowmelt variability.
• Historical snowmelt declines were primarily driven by reductions in precipitation amount (54% attributable to losses in cold season precipitation).
• Under future scenarios, the dominance of precipitation amount strengthens further, with cold season precipitation accounting for up to ~85% of the projected snowmelt increase.

Contributions

• This study establishes a threshold-based framework for diagnosing the switching of dominant controls on snowmelt and provides transferable insights into cryospheric water-cycle responses to climate change in cold, mid-high latitude regions.

Funding

• Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Wastewater Information Analysis and Early Warning (Grant No. 2022GKLWIAEW001)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42161148003)

Citation

@article{Li2026Precipitation,
  author = {Li, Dongsheng and Ouyang, Wei and Liu, Shaoqing and Tang, Jie and Chen, Jing and Ji, Kaiyue and Sharkhuu, Anarmaa and Tseren-Ochir, Soyol-Erdene},
  title = {Precipitation amount versus precipitation phase: a threshold in precipitation-amount change governs the shift in their relative influence on snowmelt dynamics},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136230},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136230}
}