Brêda et al. (2026) Climate change projections of probable maximum precipitation over large areas through depth-area-duration analysis: A case study in Brazil

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-24
• Authors: João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda, Walter Collischonn, Pedro Torres Miranda, Rodrigo Rodrigues da Cunha [UNESP] Paiva
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136296

Research Groups

• Instituto de Pesquisas Hidr´aulicas/Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (IPH/UFRGS), Brazil

Short Summary

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in large areas (>50,000 km2) and short to long durations (1–30 days) using Depth-Area-Duration curve projections. The results show a clear trend toward intensification of extreme rainfall for all regions when comparing historical data with future data.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of climate change on Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in large areas and short to long durations.
• Evaluate the consistency of GCMs in simulating extreme precipitation events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Large areas (>50,000 km2)
• Temporal Scale: Short to long durations (1–30 days)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6
• Data sources: Daily rainfall data from 1975 to 2099 for the historical, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Main Results

• The results show a clear trend toward intensification of extreme rainfall for all regions when comparing historical data with future data.
• The Change Factor (CF) values decrease with increasing duration (1, 5, 10, and 30 days).
• Shorter-duration rainfall tends to experience greater intensification.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on PMP in large areas and short to long durations.
• The results are consistent with previous studies that have observed an increase in extreme precipitation events due to climate change.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Brêda2026Climate,
  author = {Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho and Collischonn, Walter and Miranda, Pedro Torres and Paiva, Rodrigo Rodrigues da Cunha [UNESP]},
  title = {Climate change projections of probable maximum precipitation over large areas through depth-area-duration analysis: A case study in Brazil},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136296},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136296}
}