Lazzarin et al. (2026) P-FLOOD: a probabilistic framework for flood hazard mapping in levee-protected floodplains

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-08
• Authors: Tommaso Lazzarin, Alessio Domeneghetti, Renato Vacondio, Marco Marani, Daniele Pietro Viero
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136384

Research Groups

• Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova, Italy
• Dept. of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy
• Dept. of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, Italy

Short Summary

This paper presents a probabilistic framework (P-FLOOD) for flood hazard mapping in levee-protected floodplains. The approach combines the probability of hydrological forcing and multiple levee failure scenarios to estimate the exceedance probability of flooding scenarios.

Objective

• Develop a probabilistic methodology for generating large-scale, 2D flood hazard maps that account for the joint probability of hydrological and breaching events.
• Reduce the number of required simulations while retaining acceptable accuracy in the estimated probability fields.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on a 40-km long reach of the Adige River between Bolzano and Trento, Italy.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis considers different return periods (18.8 years to 200 years) for flood events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: P-FLOOD framework uses an integrated 2D hydrodynamic model (2DEF) that simulates flood propagation, levee failure, and inundation of adjacent areas.
• Data sources: Historical data from past flood events, Digital Terrain Model (DTM), and flood frequency curve analysis.

Main Results

• The P-FLOOD framework provides a continuous probabilistic characterization of hazard metrics at each location within the study area.
• The results show that the proposed approach can provide improved hazard predictions compared to traditional deterministic approaches, especially for frequent flood events.

Contributions

• The P-FLOOD framework introduces a new methodology for generating large-scale, 2D flood hazard maps that account for the joint probability of hydrological and breaching events.
• The approach provides a more accurate representation of flood probabilities across the full spectrum of potential hydrological events.

Funding

• This research was funded by the University of Padova (Italy) and the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR).

Citation

@article{Lazzarin2026PFLOOD,
  author = {Lazzarin, Tommaso and Domeneghetti, Alessio and Vacondio, Renato and Marani, Marco and Viero, Daniele Pietro},
  title = {P-FLOOD: a probabilistic framework for flood hazard mapping in levee-protected floodplains},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136384},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136384}
}