Snir et al. (2026) Real-time control of rainwater harvesting in an urban catchment: a model predictive control approach under forecasting uncertainty

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-09
• Authors: Ofer Snir, Eran Friedler, Luca Vezzaro
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136390

Research Groups

• Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Israel Institute of Technology (Technion), Haifa, Israel
• Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering (DTU Sustain), Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

Short Summary

This study investigates the effects of favourable control policies on an urban catchment retrofitted with rainwater harvesting systems. A simulation-optimisation procedure is developed to generate flexible control policies that adapt to changing rainfall forecasts using Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of rainfall forecasting uncertainty on the performance of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach in real-time controlled rainwater harvesting systems.
• Evaluate the benefits of applying an MPC approach to an urban catchment retrofitted with a network of rainwater harvesting systems.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Urban catchment scale, specifically the Kaplan catchment in Kfar Saba, Israel.
• Temporal Scale: Hourly time step for simulation and control horizon.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) for hydrodynamic modelling
  • Kinematic wave model as internal MPC model
• Data sources:
  • Rainfall data from the Beit Dagan meteorological station
  • Historical rainfall radar nowcasts

Main Results

• The MPC achieved a median peak flow reduction of 29% while maintaining low rainwater availability losses (median rainwater availability reduction: 1.5–2.0%).
• Forecast uncertainty had only a minor impact on performance, and the MPC consistently outperformed rule-based control strategies.

Contributions

• This study provides a basis for a more widespread and robust implementation of real-time controlled rainwater harvesting systems.
• The results show promising outcomes in mitigating flows while maximising water availability, suggesting potential to enhance urban resilience.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Snir2026Realtime,
  author = {Snir, Ofer and Friedler, Eran and Vezzaro, Luca},
  title = {Real-time control of rainwater harvesting in an urban catchment: a model predictive control approach under forecasting uncertainty},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136390},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136390}
}