Hatami et al. (2026) Climate change both increases and decreases winter snowmelt across North America

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Shadi Hatami, Masoud Zaerpour, André S. Ballarin, Rahim Barzegar, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Alain Pietroniro, Jan Adamowski
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136410

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada
• Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
• Department of Hydraulics and Sanitation, S˜ao Carlos School of Engineering, University of S˜ao Paulo, Brazil
• Groundwater Research Group (GRES), Research Institute on Mines and Environment (RIME), Universit´e du Qu´ebec en Abitibi-T´emiscamingue (UQAT), Amos, Canada
• Institute of Global Water Security, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany
• Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (UNU-INWEH), Hamilton, Canada

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on winter snowmelt across North America using a multivariate statistical framework. The results show that winter snowmelt is projected to increase by 60% in northern latitudes under warmer and wetter conditions, while southern regions are expected to experience a decline in winter snowmelt.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on winter snowmelt across North America
• Quantify the response of winter snowmelt to changing temperature and precipitation

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale study covering North America (Canada and the United States)
• Temporal Scale: Far-future period (2091-2100), with near-future (2031-2040) and mid-future (2061-2070) projections also considered

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Conditional multivariate copula-based models, incorporating ERA5 reanalysis data and CMIP6 future projections
• Data sources: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections

Main Results

• Winter snowmelt is projected to increase by 60% in northern latitudes under warmer and wetter conditions
• Southern regions are expected to experience a decline in winter snowmelt
• The relationship between temperature, precipitation, and snowmelt is complex, with both positive and negative dependencies observed

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impact of climate change on winter snowmelt across North America
• The results highlight the importance of considering multiple climatic variables when assessing the response of snowmelt to climate change

Funding

• This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, and the German Research Foundation (DFG).

Citation

@article{Hatami2026Climate,
  author = {Hatami, Shadi and Zaerpour, Masoud and Ballarin, André S. and Barzegar, Rahim and Papalexiou, Simon Michael and Pietroniro, Alain and Adamowski, Jan},
  title = {Climate change both increases and decreases winter snowmelt across North America},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136410},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136410}
}