Yan et al. (2026) Assessment of agricultural drought resilience in China based on coupled drought propagation and recovery processes

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Ziyi Yan, Zhiming Han, Limin Duan, Wenrui Zhang, Fang Yang, Dexin Cui, Xiaolan Yu, Hu Liu, Jianan Wang, Zhi Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136411

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, China
• State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, China
• Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
• State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, China
• Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Water Conservation Science and Technology Innovation Center, China

Short Summary

This study proposes a logistic regression-based framework for identifying agricultural drought recovery thresholds in China, incorporating initial soil moisture conditions to quantify the meteorological drought conditions required for agricultural drought to recover to normal conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between meteorological drought and agricultural drought propagation and recovery processes in China

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with a focus on China's provinces and regions
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (1991-2023) and short-term (2024) scales for analysis of drought impacts and resilience

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Logistic regression-based framework for identifying agricultural drought recovery thresholds
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, and reanalysis datasets for precipitation, soil moisture, and crop growth data

Main Results

• Agricultural drought in southern China is more easily triggered by meteorological drought than in northwestern China
• Agricultural drought recovery thresholds and resilience exhibit a pronounced spatial pattern across China, with higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast
• Initial soil moisture decreases increase the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) threshold required for agricultural drought recovery

Contributions

• This study provides a new drought resilience indicator based on propagation and recovery thresholds, offering a scientific basis for refining drought risk assessment and improving the accuracy of drought early warning

Funding

• Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52179013)
• Funded by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Water Conservation Science and Technology Innovation Center (Grant No. IMAWCSTIC2024001)

Citation

@article{Yan2026Assessment,
  author = {Yan, Ziyi and Han, Zhiming and Duan, Limin and Zhang, Wenrui and Yang, Fang and Cui, Dexin and Yu, Xiaolan and Liu, Hu and Wang, Jianan and Li, Zhi},
  title = {Assessment of agricultural drought resilience in China based on coupled drought propagation and recovery processes},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136411},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136411}
}