Wang et al. (2026) Warm-wet shift reshapes hydroclimatic synchronization networks across the Arid Area of Northwest China

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-18
• Authors: Jiayou Wang, Zhi Li, Yaning Chen, Ruiting Wu, Lingxin Kong
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136450

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• University of Chinese Academy of Science

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of the warm-wet shift on hydroclimatic synchronization networks across the Arid Area of Northwest China (AANC). The results show that the transition period (1988-1996) exhibits extreme fragmentation of short-timescale hydroclimatic synchronization, while long-timescale networks remain relatively integrated.

Objective

• Investigate how the warm-wet shift reshapes hydroclimatic synchronization patterns across the AANC.
• Characterize the evolution of multiscale SPEI series under different climatic stages.
• Analyze the structural characteristics of statistically constrained nonlinear synchronization networks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering the Arid Area of Northwest China (AANC).
• Temporal Scale: Monthly time series from 1962 to 2021.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Bayesian Ensemble Change-Point and Trend Decomposition (BEAST) method for change-point detection.
• Data sources: Meteorological observations from 114 national meteorological stations, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) series calculated using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.

Main Results

• The warm-wet transition exhibits asynchronous shifts between precipitation and temperature.
• Short-timescale SPEI captures stronger interannual variability, while long-timescale SPEI displays greater temporal persistence and more coherent responses to climatic stage transitions.
• Statistically constrained nonlinear synchronization networks reveal pronounced stage-dependent reorganization of hydroclimatic synchronization patterns.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impact of climate change on hydroclimatic synchronization patterns in arid regions.
• The results demonstrate that the warm-wet shift reshapes regional hydroclimatic coherence and drought propagation dynamics.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837202).
• The State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences also provided funding for this project.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Warmwet,
  author = {Wang, Jiayou and Li, Zhi and Chen, Yaning and Wu, Ruiting and Kong, Lingxin},
  title = {Warm-wet shift reshapes hydroclimatic synchronization networks across the Arid Area of Northwest China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136450},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136450}
}