Creaco (2026) Integrating rainfall event and antecedent depths into a single probabilistic framework for deriving event depth-duration-antecedent depth-frequency curves

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: Enrico F. Creaco
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136551

Research Groups

• Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Architettura, Università degli Studi di Pavia

Short Summary

This paper presents a novel methodology to derive depth-duration-antecedent depth-frequency (DDAF) curves, which integrate rainfall event and antecedent depths into a single probabilistic framework. The approach enables the generation of equiprobable combinations of event and antecedent depths for a given return period.

Objective

• Integrate rainfall event and antecedent depths into a single probabilistic framework to derive DDAF curves

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local scale, with case studies in Italy (Erice and Pavia) and Sweden (Helsinborg)
• Temporal Scale: Long horizon datasets of rainfall measurements at fine temporal resolution (10 minutes to 15 minutes)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Copula-based bivariate distributions for event depth and antecedent depth, with empirical copula construction
• Data sources: Rainfall depth data from rain gauge stations

Main Results

• DDAF curves were constructed for three case studies (Erice, Pavia, and Helsinborg) using the proposed methodology
• The results show that the return period has a significant impact on the trade-off between event depth and antecedent depth
• The novel approach enables the generation of equiprobable combinations of event and antecedent depths for a given return period

Contributions

• Original contribution to existing literature on DDF curves, which do not consider antecedent rainfall depth
• Novel methodology integrates rainfall event and antecedent depths into a single probabilistic framework

Funding

• This research was funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR)

Citation

@article{Creaco2026Integrating,
  author = {Creaco, Enrico F.},
  title = {Integrating rainfall event and antecedent depths into a single probabilistic framework for deriving event depth-duration-antecedent depth-frequency curves},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136551},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136551}
}