Du et al. (2026) Nonlinear sea level rise and storm surge interactions amplify future coastal flood hazards in the world’s largest urban delta

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: Haoxuan Du, Liang Gao, Limin Zhang, Lishu Xu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136556

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Ocean Science and Technology, University of Macau (PR China)
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong, PR China)

Short Summary

This study develops a probabilistic framework to assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal flood hazards in the Pearl River Delta under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results show that nonlinear interactions between sea level rise and storm surges amplify future coastal flood hazards.

Objective

• Investigate the joint influence of evolving tropical cyclone climatology and uncertain sea level rise on coastal flood risks in the world's largest urban delta.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pearl River Delta (PR China)
• Temporal Scale: 2070–2100, under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling and Bayesian Quadrature (JPM-OS-BQ), stochastic regional sea-level-rise projections, high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling
• Data sources: CHIPS-CMIP6 synthetic tropical cyclones, SSP-conditioned climate scenarios

Main Results

• The area-averaged event-maximum total water level under SSP5-8.5 is approximately 1.1 m (29%) higher at the 100-year return period and 1.7 m (43%) higher at the 1000-year return period compared to SSP2-4.5.
• At Hong Kong and Macao, 100-year total water levels increase from approximately 2.4 and 3.5 m under SSP2-4.5 to 4.2 and 5.2 m under SSP5-8.5.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of considering nonlinear interactions between sea level rise and storm surges in assessing future coastal flood hazards.
• The results demonstrate that linear addition of sea level rise to baseline water levels can misrepresent future hazards in complex deltas.

Funding

• This research was supported by [project/program name] with reference code [reference code].

Citation

@article{Du2026Nonlinear,
  author = {Du, Haoxuan and Gao, Liang and Zhang, Limin and Xu, Lishu},
  title = {Nonlinear sea level rise and storm surge interactions amplify future coastal flood hazards in the world’s largest urban delta},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136556},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136556}
}