Tehseen et al. (2026) Climate-driven future changes in Arctic river discharges using hydrological modelling and CMIP6 projections

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-11
• Authors: Asfand Tehseen, Joy Bhattacharjee, Aino Saarinen, Elina Kasvi, Ville Kankare, Petteri Alho
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136593

Research Groups

• Department of Geography and Geology, University of Turku
• Water and Environmental Engineering, Department of Built Environment, Aalto University
• Finnish Geospatial Research Institute FGI

Short Summary

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the discharge regime of the Tana River in northern Fennoscandia using hydrological modeling and CMIP6 projections. The results show that the river's discharge regime is already changing, with projected shifts in peak flow timing, seasonal flow patterns, and annual projections by 2100.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of climate change on the discharge regime of the Tana River
• Quantify the changes in monthly discharge distribution, seasonal flow patterns, and annual projections

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Catchment-scale analysis of the Tana River catchment in northern Fennoscandia
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of historical data (1992-2014) and future projections (2015-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT+ hydrological model driven by CMIP6 climate projections
• Data sources: Observed daily discharge, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures from MET Nordic LTC dataset

Main Results

• Shift in peak flow timing from June to May across most GCMs and scenarios
• Increased flows in winter, spring, and autumn, and decreased flows in summer
• Projected changes in annual discharge, precipitation, temperature, and snow fraction by 2100

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on the Tana River's discharge regime using hydrological modeling and CMIP6 projections.
• The results highlight the importance of considering multiple scenarios and GCMs to understand the uncertainty in future projections.

Funding

• This research was funded by [project name], [program name], and [reference code].

Citation

@article{Tehseen2026Climatedriven,
  author = {Tehseen, Asfand and Bhattacharjee, Joy and Saarinen, Aino and Kasvi, Elina and Kankare, Ville and Alho, Petteri},
  title = {Climate-driven future changes in Arctic river discharges using hydrological modelling and CMIP6 projections},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136593},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136593}
}