Liang et al. (2026) Agricultural land-use change rivals climate variability in driving blue water consumption in arid Xinjiang: a factorial counterfactual attribution

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-12
• Authors: Qixiang Liang, Yanfeng Di, Xingming Hao, Mengtao Ci, Fan Sun, Jingjing Zhang, Zulipiya Kulaixi, Chuan Wang, Xue Fan, Xinran Guo
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136610

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Xinjiang, China
• School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
• Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing, China

Short Summary

This study quantitatively disentangles the independent and combined impacts of agricultural land-use conversion and climate change on blue water consumption in arid Xinjiang, revealing that both factors contribute almost equally to the increase in irrigation water use. It highlights the critical role of agricultural land-use adjustments in regional water resource management.

Objective

• To quantitatively understand the independent and combined impacts of agricultural land-use (ALU) conversion and climate change on water resources, specifically blue water consumption, in arid Xinjiang.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Xinjiang, China; 30-meter resolution crop type dataset.
• Temporal Scale: 2013–2024 (crop type dataset); 2013–2015 (baseline period); 2016–2024 (analysis period).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Counterfactual simulations, integration of evapotranspiration (ET) products.
• Data sources: Multi-source remote sensing imagery, field sampling data (for crop type dataset), evapotranspiration (ET) products.

Main Results

• Xinjiang's total agricultural water use increased by 3.545 × 10^9 cubic meters (m³) during 2016–2024 relative to the 2013–2015 baseline.
• Climate change contributed 2.250 × 10^9 m³ to the increase in total agricultural water use, while ALU conversion contributed 1.295 × 10^9 m³.
• For irrigation (blue) water, the total increase was 3.287 × 10^9 m³.
• ALU conversion contributed 1.667 × 10^9 m³ to the increase in blue water consumption, which is comparable to the 1.620 × 10^9 m³ contributed by climate change.
• The expansion of cotton and reclamation of non-agricultural land substantially intensified irrigation demand.
• Conversion to orchards and other economic crops effectively reduced blue water consumption.

Contributions

• Developed a high-resolution (30-meter) crop type dataset for Xinjiang spanning 2013–2024 using multi-source remote sensing and field sampling data.
• Quantitatively disentangled the independent and combined causal effects of agricultural land-use conversion and climate change on blue water consumption using counterfactual simulations.
• Demonstrated that agricultural land-use adjustments exert a comparable influence to climate change on blue water consumption in arid regions.
• Provided specific policy recommendations for water-resource planning, including constraining cotton expansion and non-agricultural reclamation, dynamically adjusting irrigation quotas, and protecting environmental flows.

Funding

• Not available in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Liang2026Agricultural,
  author = {Liang, Qixiang and Di, Yanfeng and Hao, Xingming and Ci, Mengtao and Sun, Fan and Zhang, Jingjing and Kulaixi, Zulipiya and Wang, Chuan and Fan, Xue and Guo, Xinran},
  title = {Agricultural land-use change rivals climate variability in driving blue water consumption in arid Xinjiang: a factorial counterfactual attribution},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136610},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136610}
}